Insights
Writing & Analysis
Published via Substack. Essays and analysis on geopolitics, markets, and the intelligence that connects them.
27 May 2026
The Structural Limits of Tokenized Finance
The Three Structural Mispricings in Digital Asset Markets
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THE LAW OF THE JUNGLE
Order dissolves before a new order forms.
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16 May 2026
“Partners , not rivals”
Xi Jinping’s remark to Donald Trump in Beijing — “We should be partners, not rivals” — was interpreted in much of the Western press as ritual diplomatic language, another carefully staged gesture within the choreography of summit politics.
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14 May 2026
Energy, Artificial Intelligence, Financial Power, and the Architecture of Systemic Fragility
Beyond the visible theater of elections, summit meetings, market fluctuations, and televised crises, there exists another geography altogether: a subterranean architecture of power through which the modern world actually functions.
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7 May 2026
The End of Efficiency — Welcome to the Basics-First Economy #5
Dismantling nuclear sites, demands for reparations, formal guarantees of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — these are the agenda items placed on the negotiating table for public consumption.
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2 May 2026
The European Political Economy. Everything Is Connected And Nothing Is Working #4
The EU single market’s foundational design principle is that member states don’t subsidise domestic industries in ways that distort competition across the bloc.
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27 April 2026
China Read the Situation: What It Built Before the Crisis Hit #3
The conflict began February 28th, 2026.
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27 April 2026
The Product Shortage Cascade. Jet Fuel First, Then Everything Else. #2
There is a refining trade-off sitting at the centre of this crisis that mainstream coverage is not explaining, and it matters because Europe isn’t facing one shortage — it’s facing two simultaneous ones from the same constraint, where the response to one degrades the other.
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26 April 2026
Bridging the World As it is Series #1
The Oil Price On Your Screen Is Not The Price Of Oil
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16 April 2026
The Gun, the Debt, and the Entropy of Power
In a multipolar world, paralysis is not the absence of strategy — it is the strategy that entropy selects.
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11 April 2026
Your MBA is not enough. You have to think like a military strategist.
So here is something worth sitting with before the next board presentation, the next strategy offsite, the next consultant-facilitated workshop where Porter’s Five Forces gets drawn on a whiteboard as if the year is 1979 and the operating environment has not fundamentally changed three times since then.
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11 April 2026
THE RISE OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS IN THE “THIS IS NOT WAR” ERA
The ceasefire is a data point.
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1 April 2026
A Few Days Ago I Said Defense Would Start Behaving Like Private Equity. The Pentagon Just Proved It.
The argument I made recently was specific.
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27 March 2026
The World Is Multipolar. Not Bipolar.
Every major media narrative about the current conflict frames the world as two sides.
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21 March 2026
I need a dollar, a dollar is what I need.
The Dollar is being questioned because it is losing the Architecture that made that status possible.
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14 March 2026
For whom the bell tolls?
Cheap Russian gas made economic sense for two decades.
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9 March 2026
You Have To Understand That Oil Reserves Are Tightening.
You Have To Understand That Oil Reserves Are Tightening.
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7 March 2026
While Europe Debated, Greece Deployed. What position does Greece have in the current crisis?
In 1973 Kissinger said geography is destiny.
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5 March 2026
The Supply Chain Decision Every CFO Is Making This Week
Three years ago the lesson of COVID was simple.
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4 March 2026
Water Plays a Huge Economic, Financial, Strategic and Geopolitical Role in This War
Water has been a weapon of war for 2,500 years.
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